JCARM Journal of Contemporary Academic Research and Methodologies JCARM 3139-7247 Ivory and Finch Publishers 10.5281/zenodo.23280020 JCARM_SEP_26_100 Original Research Article Evaluating 35-Year Vegetation Dynamics in Anambra State: An NDVI-Climate Correlation Analysis Ikechukwu Udoka Chibuogwu Department of Physics and Industrial Physics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria iu.chibuogwu@unizik.edu.ng E.G Nneji Physics and Industrial Physics Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka K.P Alor Physics and Industrial Physics Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka O.O Obichukwu Physics and Industrial Physics Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka I.L David-Okoro Physics and Industrial Physics Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka A.O Mbadugha Physics and Industrial Physics Department, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka A.N Nwobodo Department of Industrial Physics, Enugu State University of Science and Technology 10 10 2026 1 8

This study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation and its climatic drivers in Anambra State, Nigeria, from 1990 to 2025 using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis and long-term climate time series. Results reveal a progressive decline in vegetation health, with mean NDVI dropping from 0.451 in 1990 to ∼0.25 in 2005, representing a 44% loss of photosynthetic capacity. Spatial NDVI maps confirm dense vegetation cover in 1995, followed by fragmentation and expansion of degraded corridors by 2005. Although a modest recovery occurred between 2020 and 2025 (NDVI rising to ∼0.336), this was qualitative, reflecting a shift from dense forest to sparse shrubland and cropland. Climatic variability, erratic rainfall, warming temperatures, declining wind speed, and stabilized solar radiation modulated short-term NDVI fluctuations. However, Pearson correlation analysis revealed weak NDVI–climate coupling, with rainfall (r=0.15) and temperature (r≈0) showing negligible influence, highlighting anthropogenic drivers such as deforestation, agricultural expansion, urbanization, and sand mining as dominant causes of degradation. The findings underscore vegetation dynamics as a sensitive indicator of environmental instability and agricultural unsustainability. The observed resilience after 2020 offers opportunities for reforestation, agroforestry, and sustainable land-use planning to restore ecological balance and ensure long-term sustainability

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