JCARM Journal of Contemporary Academic Research and Methodologies JCARM 3139-7247 Ivory and Finch Publishers 10.5281/zenodo.22765937 JCARM_AUG_26_016 Original Research Article EXPLORING THE SUITABLE AREAS IN BANGLADESH FOR PREDICTING EXTREME TEMPERATURES USING THE WRF-ARW MODEL Gazi Mamunar Rashid Dr. Department of Mathematics, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology, Khulna, Bangladesh g.r.mamun1972@gmail.com 15 09 2026 1 7

This study examines suitable areas in Bangladesh for predicting extreme temperatures using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model during the pre-monsoon and winter seasons. Based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the temperature at 2m height, it is established that the WRF model is highly capable of simulating extreme temperatures. The WRF model output data were compared with the ERA data from the ECMWF global model. The comparison indicates that the WRF model successfully captures the spatial distribution of extreme temperature areas across Bangladesh and demonstrates a reasonable capability for their deterministic prediction. The third objective of this study is an initial attempt to identify the causes of extreme temperature events in Bangladesh. The WRF model revealed that the Thar Desert, the Himalayan range, the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, and the region's geography play a significant role in producing extreme temperatures in the Indian subcontinent. Finally, it is concluded that the study successfully achieved its intended outcomes, as evidenced by the findings presented in this research.

 Explore Extreme Predict Suitable Temperature 06 08 2026 20 08 2026 Copyright © 2026 by the authors This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. References Alam, M. M., Mahtab, A. S. M., Ahmed, M. R., and Hasam, Q. K. 2022. Developing a Cold-Related Mortality Database in Bangladesh. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 12175. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912175 Bhadram C. V. V., Amatya. B. V. S., Pant G. B. & Kumar K. K., 2005, “Heat waves over Andhra Pradesh: A case study of summer of 2003”. Mausam, 56, 2, pp. 385–394. Black, E., Blackburn, M., Harrison, G., Hoskins, B., Methven, J., 2004. Factors contributing to the summer 2003 heat wave. Weather 59, 217–223. http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/wea.74.04. Braga, ALF., Zanobetti, A., and Schwartz, J. - Epidemiology, 2001 - journals.lww.com Bohnenstengel, S.I., Evans, S., Clark, P.A., Belcher, S.E., 2011. Simulations of the London urban heat island. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 1625–1640. Ciais, Ph., Reichstein, M., Viovy, N., Granier, A., Ogée, J. , Allard, V. , Aubinet, M., Buchmann, N., Bernhofer, Chr. Carrara, A., Chevallier, F., Noblet, N. De., Friend, A. D., Friedlingstein, P., Grünwald, T., Heinesch, B., Keronen, P., Knohl, A., Krinner, G., Loustau, D., Manca, G., Matteucci, G., Miglietta, F., Ourcival, J. M., Papale, D., Pilegaard, K., Rambal, S., Seufert, G., Soussana, J. F., Sanz, M. J., Schulze, E. D., Vesala, T. and Valentini, R. 2005. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature 437 (7058), 529–533. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature 03972 Curriero, F. C., Heiner, K. S., Samet, J. M., Zeger, S. L., Strug, L., Patz, J. A., 2002. Temperature and mortality in 11 cities of the eastern United States. Am. J. Epidemiol. 155, 80–87. Das, S., Smith, S.C., 2012. Awareness as an adaptation strategy for reducing Mortality from heat waves: Evidence from a Disaster risk management program in India. Clim. Chang. Econ. 03, 1250010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S2010007812500108. Dasari, H.P., Salgado, R., Perdigao, J., Challa, V.S., 2014. A regional climate simulation study using the WRF-ARW model over Europe and evaluation for extreme temperature weather events. Int. J. Atmos. Sci. 2014, 22, 704079. De, U.S., Khole, M. and Dandekar, M., 2004. Natural hazards associated with meteorological extreme events. Nat. Hazards 31, 487–497. De, U. S. and Mukhopadhyay, R. K., 1998, “Severe heat wave over Indian subcontinent in 1998 in a perspective of global climate”. Current Science, 75, pp. 1308–1311. Fink, A., Brucher, T., Kruger, A., Leckebusch, G., Pinto, J., Ulbrich, U., 2004. The European summer heat waves and drought – synoptic diagnosis and impacts. Weather 59, 209–216. http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/wea.73.04. Gershunov, A., Cayan, D. R., Iacobellis, S. F., 2009. The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevad Signal of an increasing trend. J. Clim. 22, 6181–6203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2465.1 Giannaros, T.M., Melas, D., Daglis, I.A., Keramitsoglou, I., Kourtidis, K., 2013. Numerical study of the urban heat island over Athens (Greece) with the WRF model. Atmos. Environ. 73, 103–111. Giovannini, L., Zardi, D., de Franceschi, M., Chen, F., 2013. Numerical simulations of boundary-layer processes and urban-induced alterations in an Alpine valley. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 1111–1131. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3750. Huynen, M.M., Martens, P., Schram, D., Weijenberg, M.P., Kunst, A.E., 2001. The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rates in the Dutch population. Environ. Health Perspect. 109, 463–470. IPCC, 2014. Summary for policymakers. In: Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., BilirTE, Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada, Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R., White, L.L. (Eds.), Climate Change 2014, Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Cambridge, UK and New-York, NY, pp. 1–32. Jenamani R. K., 2012, “Analysis of Ocean-Atmospheric features associated with extreme temperature variations over the east coast of India- A special emphasis to Orissa heat waves of 1998 and 2005”. Mausam, 63, pp. 401–422. Karmakar, S., 2018. Climate change patterns, future trends, and impacts in northwest Bangladesh.” Abstract Book of Conference on Weather Forecasting & Advances in Physics, 11-12 May 2018, Department of Physics, Khulna University of Engineering and Technology (KUET), Bangladesh. McGeehin, M.A., Mirabelli, M., 2001. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ. Health Perspect. 109 (Suppl. 2), 185–189. Mercer, J.B., 2003. Cold—an underrated risk factor for health. Environ. Res. 92, 8–13. Mishra, V., Ganguly, A. R., Nijssen, B., and Lettenmaier, D. P., 2015, “Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas”. Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 2, pp.1-10, 024005; 10.1088/1748-9326/10/2/024005. Murari, K.K., Ghosh, S., Patwardhan, A., Daly, E., Salvi, K., 2015. Intensification of future severe heat waves in India and their effect on heat stress and mortality. Reg. Environ. Chang. 15, (4), 569–579. NIUA, 2016, “Heat Waves”, India-Urban Climate Change Fact Sheets, prepared by National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA), pp. 1-4. Panda, D. K., A. AghaKouchak, and S. K. Ambast, 2017. Increasing heat waves and warm spells in India, observed from a multiaspect framework. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 122, 3837 – 3858. doi:10.1002/2016JD026292 Peng, S., J. Huang, J. E. Sheehy, R. C. Laza, R. M. Visperas, X. Zhong, G. S. Centeno, G. S. Khush, and K. G. Cassman, 2004. Rice yields decline with higher night temperatures from global warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 9971–9975. Rashid, G. M., Hossain, M. M. T., Akhter, M. A. E., and Mallik, M. A. K. 2022. Sensitivity of Radiation Schemes in the WRF-ARW Model to Predict Extreme Temperature Due to Heat Wave over Bangladesh. IOSR Journal of Applied Physics. E-ISSN: 2278-4861. Volume 14, Issue5, pp 21 – 33. DOI: 10.9790/4861-1405022133 Rashid, G. M., Akhter, M. A. E., and Mallik, M. A. K. 2022. The study of recent cold conditions in Bangladesh during 1990 to 2019. Quest Journal of Research in Applied Mathematics. Vol. 8 ~ Issue 11, PP: 31-37. ISSN (Online): 2394-0743 ISSN (Print): 2394-0735 www.questjournals.org Rashid, G. M., Hossain, M. M. T., Akhter, M. A. E., and Mallik, M. A. K. 2022. Impact of Different Radiation Schemes on the Prediction of Extreme Cold Weather Events over Bangladesh. American Journal of Marine Science. Vol. 10, No. 1, 10-20. DOI: 10.12691/marine-10-1-2 Rashid, G. M., Hossain, M. M. T., Akhter, M. A. E., and Mallik, M. A. K. 2023. A STUDY ON THE HEAT WAVE CONDITIONS OVER BANGLADESH DURING 1990 – 2019. Journal of Engineering Science. 14(2), 2023, 59-67. DOI: https://10.3329/jes.v14i2.71227 Rashid, G. M., Hossain, M. M. T., and Akhter, M. A. E. 2025. Feasibility of Radiation Schemes to Predict Extreme Temperature Conditions over Bangladesh. European Journal of Science, Innovation and Technology. ISSN: 2786-4936, Vol. 5, No. 1, 18-44. www.ejsit-journal.com Russo, S. and Sterl, A., 2011. Global changes in indices describing moderate temperature extremes from the daily output of a climate model. J. Geophys. Res.116. doi:10.1029 /2010JD014727 Salamanca, F., Martilli, A., et al., 2012. A numerical study of the Urban Heat Island over Madrid during the DESIREX 2008 campaign with WRF and an evaluation of simple mitigation strategies. Int. J. Climatol. 32, 2372–2386. Schar, C., Vidale, P.L., Luthi, D., Frei, C., Haberli, C., Liniger, M.A., Appenzeller, C., 2004. The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heat waves. Nature 427, 332–336. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature02300. Seneviratne, S. I., M. G. Donat, B. Mueller, and L. V. Alexander, 2014. No pause in the increase of hot temperature extremes. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 161–163. doi:10.1038/nclimate2145 Thornbrugh, C., Ghertner, A., McNeeley, S., Wilhelmi, O., Harriss, R., 2007. Heat Wave Awareness Project. National Center for Atmospheric Research.