<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.2 20190208//EN"
  "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.2/JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd">
<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"
         article-type="original-research-article">

  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">BJAR</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>British Journal of Advanced Research</journal-title>
        <abbrev-journal-title>BJAR</abbrev-journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
            <publisher>
        <publisher-name>Ivory and Finch Publishers</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>

    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">Pending</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">BJAR_JUN_26_005</article-id>

      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Original Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>

      <title-group>
        <article-title>Yobe State and the Ecology of Insurgency: Poverty, Climate Stress, and Violent Extremism</article-title>
      </title-group>

      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
                        <surname>Ibn Mohammed (PhD)</surname>
            <given-names>Hussaini</given-names>
          </name>
                    <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0000-8962-3658</contrib-id>
                    <aff>Department of Sociology, Faculty of Management and Social Sciences, Federal University Gashua, Yobe State, Nigeria</aff>
          <email>hussainiibnmohammed@gmail.com</email>
        </contrib>
                                          <contrib contrib-type="author">
              <name>
                                <surname>Abubakar (PhD)</surname>
                <given-names>Mamuda</given-names>
              </name>
                            <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7886-8688</contrib-id>
                                          <aff>Registry/Political Science Department, Faculty of Management and Social Sciences, Federal University Gashua, Yobe State, Nigeria</aff>
                          </contrib>
                                    </contrib-group>

            <pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>10</day>
        <month>07</month>
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>1</volume>
      <issue>1</issue>
      
      
            <self-uri xlink:href="https://doi.org/Pending"/>
      
      <abstract>
        <p>Yobe State sits at the center of one of the most violent and least understood conflicts in West Africa. Decades of insurgent activity by Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) have claimed thousands of lives, yet explanations anchored in ideology alone fail to account for the structural conditions that sustain mass recruitment and territorial control across the state&#039;s arid zones. This study examines the ecology of insurgency in Yobe State, tracing how poverty, climate stress, and violent extremism interact to produce cycles of instability that conventional security responses have consistently failed to break. Grounded in political ecology and conflict theory, the research draws on mixed methods: spatial analysis of rainfall anomalies and land degradation data, household-level poverty indices, and qualitative evidence from affected communities. The central argument is that violent extremism in Yobe State is, in significant part, an outcome of accumulated environmental and economic shocks that have hollowed out livelihoods, weakened state presence, and left large segments of the population structurally exposed to extremist mobilization. Shrinking water availability, desertification along the Lake Chad corridor, and the collapse of rain-fed agriculture have not caused insurgency directly. They have, instead, removed the material and social buffers that might otherwise contain it. Findings show spatially concentrated overlaps between climate stress hotspots and zones of high insurgent activity, with implications for policy that go well beyond military containment.</p>
      </abstract>

            <kwd-group kwd-group-type="author-keywords">
                <kwd>Climate stress</kwd>
                <kwd>Conflict ecology</kwd>
                <kwd>Desertification</kwd>
                <kwd>Environmental insecurity</kwd>
                <kwd>Insurgency</kwd>
                <kwd>Yobe State</kwd>
                <kwd>Boko Haram</kwd>
                <kwd>ISWAP</kwd>
                <kwd>Poverty</kwd>
                <kwd>Lake Chad</kwd>
              </kwd-group>
      
      <history>
        <date date-type="received">
          <day>22</day>
          <month>06</month>
          <year>2026</year>
        </date>
              </history>

      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright &copy; 2026 by the authors</copyright-statement>
        <license license-type="open-access">
          <license-p>This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>

    </article-meta>
  </front>

    <back>
    <ref-list>
      <title>References</title>
                      <ref id="ref-1">
          <mixed-citation>Agbormbai, E. T. (2022). The poverty-conflict nexus and the activities of Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria [Doctoral dissertation, Walden University]. ScholarWorks. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/12239</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-2">
          <mixed-citation>Ajetunmobi, O. A. (2024). Socio-economic impact of food insecurity on vulnerable population in Nigeria. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 13(4), 13-18. https://doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2024.134.010</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-3">
          <mixed-citation>Alkire, S., Kanagaratnam, U., &amp;amp; Suppa, N. (2024). The global multidimensional poverty index 2024: Poverty amid conflict. Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. https://doi.org/10.35648/20.500.12413/11814/108</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-4">
          <mixed-citation>Al Jazeera. (2024, September 4). Dozens killed in Boko Haram attack on village in northeastern Nigeria. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/4/dozens-killed-in-boko-haram-attack-on-village-in-northeastern-nigeria</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-5">
          <mixed-citation>ACAPS. (2025, November 18). Nigeria: Conflict dynamics and humanitarian implications in north east, north west, and north central Nigeria. https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20251118_ACAPS_Nigeria_Conflict_dynamics.pdf</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-6">
          <mixed-citation>Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. (2024). ACLED data for Nigeria [Dataset]. https://acleddata.com/country/nigeria</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-7">
          <mixed-citation>Benjaminsen, T. A., &amp;amp; Ba, B. (2019). Why do pastoralists in Mali join jihadist groups? A political ecological explanation. The Journal of Peasant Studies, 46(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.1080/03066150.2018.1474457</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-8">
          <mixed-citation>Buhaug, H., &amp;amp; von Uexkull, N. (2021). Vicious circles: Violence, vulnerability, and climate change. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 46(1), 545-568. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-014708</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-9">
          <mixed-citation>Cappelli, F., Conigliani, C., Consoli, D., Costantini, V., &amp;amp; Paglialunga, E. (2022). Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: Temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers. Economia Politica, 39(3), 847-868. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-022-00271-x</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-10">
          <mixed-citation>CLEEN Foundation. (2026, March 23). Escalating lethality and shifting dynamics of terrorism in Nigeria demand urgent action. https://cleen.org/2026/03/23/escalating-lethality-and-shifting-dynamics-of-terrorism-in-nigeria-demand-urgent-action/</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-11">
          <mixed-citation>Climate Refugees. (2023). Climate change loss and damage: A Lake Chad Basin case study. https://www.climate-refugees.org/reports/case-study-loss-and-damage</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-12">
          <mixed-citation>Conroy, M. (2022). The climate change-terrorism nexus: A critical literature review. Terrorism and Political Violence, 34(5), 894-913. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2022.2069445</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-13">
          <mixed-citation>Council on Foreign Relations. (2018). Boko Haram&#039;s deadly impact. https://www.cfr.org/article/boko-harams-deadly-impact</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-14">
          <mixed-citation>Crisis Group. (2024). JAS vs. ISWAP: The war of the Boko Haram splinters. https://www.un.org/peacebuilding/sites/www.un.org.peacebuilding/files/documents/icg_-_boko_haram_splitners_march_2024.pdf</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-15">
          <mixed-citation>Daoudy, M. (2021). Rethinking the climate-conflict nexus: A human-environmental-climate security approach. Global Environmental Politics, 21(3), 4-25. https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00609</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-16">
          <mixed-citation>David, A. A. (2024). Boko Haram and Niger Delta Avengers: Unraveling the greed-need-creed spectrum in Nigeria&#039;s security-development nexus. Frontiers in Political Science, 7, Article 1562472. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2025.1562472</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-17">
          <mixed-citation>Ehiane, S., &amp;amp; Moyo, P. (2022). Climate change, human insecurity and conflict dynamics in the Lake Chad Region. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 57(8), 1677-1689. https://doi.org/10.1177/00219096211063817</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-18">
          <mixed-citation>Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect. (2025). Nigeria situation report. https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-19">
          <mixed-citation>Hendrix, C. S., Koubi, V., Selby, J., Siddiqi, A., &amp;amp; von Uexkull, N. (2023). Climate change and conflict. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 4, 144-148. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00390-8</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-20">
          <mixed-citation>Hoch, J. M., de Bruin, S. P., Buhaug, H., von Uexkull, N., van Beek, R., &amp;amp; Wanders, N. (2021). Projecting armed conflict risk in Africa towards 2050 along the SSP-RCP scenarios: A machine learning approach. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), Article 124068. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3013</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-21">
          <mixed-citation>Hudson Institute. (2025, July 7). Boko Haram 2.0? The evolution of a jihadist group since 2015. https://www.hudson.org/religious-freedom/boko-haram-20-evolution-jihadist-group-2015</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-22">
          <mixed-citation>Ide, T., Johnson, M. F., Barnett, J., Krampe, F., Le Billon, P., Maertens, L., von Uexkull, N., &amp;amp; Velez-Torres, I. (2023). The future of environmental peace and conflict research. Environmental Politics, 32(6), 1077-1103. https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2022.2156174</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-23">
          <mixed-citation>Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-24">
          <mixed-citation>International Organisation for Migration. (2021). Displacement tracking matrix: Lake Chad Basin crisis report. IOM. https://dtm.iom.int</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-25">
          <mixed-citation>IntechOpen. (2025, March 4). Nigeria and food security challenges: Intertwining of climate change and non-state armed groups and policy interventions. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.1009218</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-26">
          <mixed-citation>Kamta, F. N., Schilling, J., &amp;amp; Scheffran, J. (2021). Water resources, forced migration and tensions with host communities in the Nigerian part of the Lake Chad Basin. Resources, 10(4), 27. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources10040027</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-27">
          <mixed-citation>Kazeem, O. S. (2024). Climate change and violent conflict in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin. Journal of Contemporary International Relations and Diplomacy, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4840286</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-28">
          <mixed-citation>LeBillon, P., &amp;amp; Duffy, R. (2018). Conflict ecologies: Connecting political ecology and peace and conflict studies. Journal of Political Ecology, 25(1), 239-260. https://doi.org/10.2458/v25i1.22704</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-29">
          <mixed-citation>Multidimensional Poverty Peer Network. (2018). National multidimensional poverty index for Nigeria. https://www.mppn.org/nigeria-national-mpi/</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-30">
          <mixed-citation>Nairametrics. (2022, November 21). Sokoto, Bayelsa designated poverty capital of Nigeria: Yobe MPI = 0.37. https://nairametrics.com/2022/11/21/sokoto-bayelsa-designated-poverty-capital-of-nigeria/</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-31">
          <mixed-citation>National Bureau of Statistics. (2022). Nigeria multidimensional poverty index 2022. Federal Republic of Nigeria. https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-32">
          <mixed-citation>Nwilo, P. C., Olayinka, D. N., Okolie, C. J., Emmanuel, E. I., Orji, M. J., &amp;amp; Daramola, O. E. (2020). Impacts of land cover changes on desertification in northern Nigeria and implications on the Lake Chad Basin. Journal of Arid Environments, 181, Article 104190. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104190</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-33">
          <mixed-citation>Odukoya, A. O., Quadri, W. A., &amp;amp; Idowu, A. (2024). Crisis in crisis: Boko Haram violence, orphaned children, and the precariousness in human survival in northeast Nigeria. Civil Wars, 26(2), 233-255. https://doi.org/10.1080/13623699.2024.2361382</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-34">
          <mixed-citation>Ogunmakin, O. (2024). Will they continue to endure: How conflict and climate-induced migration is affecting the Lake Chad Region. Journal of Environment, Climate, and Ecology, 1(2), 16-24. https://doi.org/10.69739/jece.v1i2.136</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-35">
          <mixed-citation>Oji, A., Oji, C., &amp;amp; Oji, U. (2025). (De)weaponizing climate-induced recruitment: Prospects of climate change adaptation as a non-kinetic counter-terrorism strategy in the Lake Chad Basin. Small Wars and Insurgencies, 36(1), 1-30. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600826.2025.2459627</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-36">
          <mixed-citation>Okonkwo, U. A., &amp;amp; Nwachukwu, S. T. (2022). Livelihood diversification and resilience in conflict-affected communities: Evidence from Yobe State, Nigeria. Journal of Rural Studies, 93, 425-437. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.04.012</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-37">
          <mixed-citation>Organization for World Peace. (2022). Boko Haram insurgency. https://theowp.org/crisis_index/boko-haram-insurgency-2/</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-38">
          <mixed-citation>Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative &amp;amp; United Nations Development Programme. (2024). Global multidimensional poverty index 2024: Poverty amid conflict. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2024-10/2024_global_multidimensional_poverty_index.pdf</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-39">
          <mixed-citation>Pham-Duc, B., Sylvestre, F., Papa, F., Frappart, F., Bouchez, C., &amp;amp; Cretaux, J. (2020). The Lake Chad hydrology under current climate change. Scientific Reports, 10(1), Article 5498. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-62417-w</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-40">
          <mixed-citation>Pham-Duc, B., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Vanderkelen, I., Jaramillo, F., &amp;amp; Teutschbein, C. (2024). The impacts of climate change on violent conflict risk: A review of causal pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 19(11), Article 113005. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad7e09</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-41">
          <mixed-citation>Shodunke, A. O. (2021). Ideology as justification for terrorism: An analysis of Boko Haram&#039;s philosophy in northeast Nigeria. Terrorism and Political Violence, 33(7), 1449-1466. https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2019.1634069</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-42">
          <mixed-citation>Shola, A. T. (2020). A theoretical assessment of Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria from relative deprivation and frustration-aggression perspectives. African Journal of Terrorism and Insurgency Research, 1(2), 87-103.</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-43">
          <mixed-citation>Sylvestre, F., Mahamat-Nour, A., Naradoum, T., Alcoba, M., Gal, L., Paris, A., &amp;amp; Gaya, D. (2024). Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the Lake Chad Basin under current climate change. Scientific Reports, 14(1), Article 16253. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-66980-8</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-44">
          <mixed-citation>Tsomb Tsomb, E. I. B., Nsoga Nsoga, M. H., &amp;amp; Bitting, C. D. (2024). Climate change vulnerability and conflicts in Africa: Evidence from the migrations channel. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 26(7), 18811-18854. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03417-4</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-45">
          <mixed-citation>United Nations Development Programme. (2022). Assessing the impact of conflict on development in northeast Nigeria. UNDP Nigeria. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/migration/ng/Assessing-the-Impact-of-Conflict-on-Development-in-NE-Nigeria---The-Report.pdf</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-46">
          <mixed-citation>United Nations Development Programme. (2024). JALUFRA report 2024: Gender, conflict, and the Lake Chad Basin. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2025-07/jalufra_report_2024_en_0.pdf</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-47">
          <mixed-citation>Uweru, O. C., Isike, C., &amp;amp; Ojo, J. S. (2025). Countering Boko Haram insurgency in northeastern Nigeria: Indigenous knowledge as an incentive for rethinking approaches to counterterrorism in Africa. Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression. https://doi.org/10.1080/19434472.2025.2564140</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-48">
          <mixed-citation>Vivekananda, J., Tanzler, D., Bressaglia, M., &amp;amp; Martone, F. (2025). Climate change adaptation as a tool against violent extremism: Evidence from the Lake Chad Basin. Small Wars and Insurgencies. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600826.2025.2459627</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-49">
          <mixed-citation>World Bank. (2024). Shallow dive: The data behind the impacts of Lake Chad&#039;s shrinkage. World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/shallow-dive--the-data-behind-the-impacts-of-lake-chad-s-shrinka</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-50">
          <mixed-citation>Yokoro, C. M., Jonga, W., &amp;amp; Maligwa, N. (2023). Climate change and community conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa: A review. African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 17(8), 184-195. https://doi.org/10.5897/AJEST2023.3126</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                              <ref id="ref-51">
          <mixed-citation>Zachariah, M., Barnes, C., Wainwright, C., Balogun, R. A., Vondou, D. A., Adefisan, E. A., &amp;amp; Otto, F. E. (2022). Climate change exacerbated heavy rainfall leading to large scale flooding in highly vulnerable communities in West Africa. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org</mixed-citation>
        </ref>
                  </ref-list>
  </back>
  
</article>
